Based on wrinkling model,a theoretical model for thermal barrier coating system was established. Using the temperature parameter method,the paper constructed the residual stress field of coating system,built the discrete format of finite element for lower coating shakedown analysis,and analyzed the effects of wrinkling degree and oxide layer thickness on coating system shakedown limit. Aiming at the geometric characteristics of wrinkling model,this paper translated it into a cylindrical model with three layers,provided analytic expressions for the shakedown limits,and then set up the simplified analytic model of thermal barrier coating. Compared with the numerical results,when C / L is less than 1 or C is far less than L,namely when wrinkle degree is not very drastic,the simplified model is close to the numerical results and it can be as an approximate calculation method for the shakedown limit of thermal barrier coating.