ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC RELIABILITY AND FAILURE RISK OF COLUMN DISCONNECTOR UNDER TYPHOON BASED ON THE PROBABILITY DENSITY EVOLUTION MODEL

SHI ShouJian; CHEN WenTong; YANG HuanHong; ZHU LiangLong; WU XueFeng; XU ChengHao

doi:10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2024.02.014

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ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC RELIABILITY AND FAILURE RISK OF COLUMN DISCONNECTOR UNDER TYPHOON BASED ON THE PROBABILITY DENSITY EVOLUTION MODEL

更新时间：2024-07-05

- ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC RELIABILITY AND FAILURE RISK OF COLUMN DISCONNECTOR UNDER TYPHOON BASED ON THE PROBABILITY DENSITY EVOLUTION MODEL
- Journal of Mechanical Strength Vol. 46, Issue 2, Pages: 364-370(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网浙江省电力有限公司金华供电公司
  2. 上海电力大学
  3. 浦江光远电力建设有限公司
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  The project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51777119).
- DOI：10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2024.02.014
  CLC： TM564.1
- Published：15 April 2024，
- 稿件说明：
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SHI ShouJian, CHEN WenTong, YANG HuanHong, et al. ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC RELIABILITY AND FAILURE RISK OF COLUMN DISCONNECTOR UNDER TYPHOON BASED ON THE PROBABILITY DENSITY EVOLUTION MODEL. [J]. Journal of Mechanical Strength , 2024,46(2):364-370.
DOI：

SHI ShouJian, CHEN WenTong, YANG HuanHong, et al. ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC RELIABILITY AND FAILURE RISK OF COLUMN DISCONNECTOR UNDER TYPHOON BASED ON THE PROBABILITY DENSITY EVOLUTION MODEL. [J]. Journal of Mechanical Strength , 2024,46(2):364-370. DOI： 10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2024.02.014.

摘要

为评估柱式隔离开关在台风过程中的结构失效风险，考虑了风场和材料抗力的随机性，建立了隔离开关结构随机可靠性高效求解模型。首先，基于功率谱密度模型，考虑了地面粗糙度、平均风速和分界波数的随机性，给出了台风的随机场模型；其次，利用Abaqus有限元分析软件，建立了隔离开关结构的三维结构力学分析模型。同时，基于概率密度演化（Probability Density Evolution Model，PDEM）理论，给出了结构目标变量的概率密度函数计算方法；最后，采用Matlab-Abaqus进行联合模拟分析计算，实现了隔离开关结构可靠性的高效求解。结果表明，隔离开关绝缘支柱底部的极限应力为结构控制参数，风场和材料抗力的随机性对结构易损性曲线影响显著，设计过程中应控制材料抗力层次的随机性。

Abstract

To estimate the structural failure risk of column disconnector subjected to typhoon

the efficient solution model of stochastic reliability was established considering the uncertainties of wind field and material resistance. First

the typhoon random field model was given based on the power spectral density

in which the uncertainties of ground roughness

average wind speed

and boundary wave number were incorporated. Then

the three-dimensional structural mechanies analysis model of disconnector was proposed based on the Abaqus software. Third

the calculation method of probability density function of structure target variable was obtained using the probability density evolution model (PDЕM). Finally

the efficient solution strategy was realized by the joint simulation of Matlab and Abaqus. Results indicated that the extreme stress of the bottom section of insulating pillar was the mainly dominated parameter. The uncertainties of wind field and material resistance have great influence on fragility curve. The uncertainty of material aspect should be controlled in structure design.

关键词

台风可靠性柱式隔离开关失效风险概率密度演化

Keywords

TyphoonReliabilityColumn disconnectorFailure riskProbability density evolution model

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