PREDICTIVE GREY MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PITTING CORROSION IN PIPLINES

YU ShuRong; HAN JunYu; LI ShuXin

doi:10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2016.04.033

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PREDICTIVE GREY MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PITTING CORROSION IN PIPLINES

更新时间：2022-09-22

- PREDICTIVE GREY MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PITTING CORROSION IN PIPLINES
- Journal of Mechanical Strength Vol. 38, Issue 4, Pages: 850-856(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 兰州理工大学石油化工学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2016.04.033
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YU ShuRong, HAN JunYu, LI ShuXin. PREDICTIVE GREY MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PITTING CORROSION IN PIPLINES. [J]. 38(4):850-856(2016)
DOI：

YU ShuRong, HAN JunYu, LI ShuXin. PREDICTIVE GREY MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PITTING CORROSION IN PIPLINES. [J]. 38(4):850-856(2016) DOI： 10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2016.04.033.

摘要

将灰色理论与马尔可夫链理论结合,组合成灰色绝对马尔可夫链模型(GMCAD)和灰色叠加马尔可夫链模型(GMCPS),使用两种模型分别对油气管道的腐蚀寿命进行预测。首先通过灰色理论建立点蚀深度计算式,然后对计算出的预测值进行马氏性检验,以保证马尔可夫链的顺利应用,最后分别用绝对马尔可夫链模型和叠加马尔可夫链模型对腐蚀状态进行预测,比较两种模型所得的结果发现,两种模型都能对严重腐蚀状态做出精确预测,但是灰色叠加马尔可夫链模型的预测结果更为精准。

Abstract

Based on the Grey theory and Markov Chain theory,two prediction models were built,they are Grey Markov Chain prediction model based on absolute distribution（ GMCAD） and Grey Markov Chain prediction model based on probability summation（ GMCPS）. These two models were used to predict the corrosion life of the oil-gas pipeline. Firstly,the calculation method of pit depth was built by the Grey theory. Secondly,test of Markov property was done to verify its feasibility. At last,GMCAD and GMCPS were used,respectively,to predict the corrosion state of the pipeline and results were compared. It indicates that both two models can give a correct prediction and the result from GMCPS is more accurate.

关键词

管道腐蚀灰色马尔可夫链模型寿命预测

Keywords

PipelineCorrosionGrey Markov chain modelLife prediction

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