STUDY OF A NEW METHOD FOR THE REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION OF CORROSION PIPELINE

JIANG Feng; ZHENG YunHu

doi:10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2015.03.010

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STUDY OF A NEW METHOD FOR THE REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION OF CORROSION PIPELINE

更新时间：2022-09-22

- STUDY OF A NEW METHOD FOR THE REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION OF CORROSION PIPELINE
- Journal of Mechanical Strength Vol. 37, Issue 3, Pages: 539-545(2015)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 兰州理工大学石油化工学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2015.03.010
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JIANG Feng, ZHENG YunHu. STUDY OF A NEW METHOD FOR THE REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION OF CORROSION PIPELINE. [J]. 37(3):539-545(2015)
DOI：

JIANG Feng, ZHENG YunHu. STUDY OF A NEW METHOD FOR THE REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION OF CORROSION PIPELINE. [J]. 37(3):539-545(2015) DOI： 10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2015.03.010.

摘要

针对概率统计方法预测腐蚀管道剩余寿命对数据样本要求大和预测精度低的问题,提出采用灰色预测理论对腐蚀管道进行了剩余寿命预测;针对传统GM(1,1)模型不能根据非等时距数据进行数据拟合、背景值构造误差大和新信息利用充分的问题对GM(1,1)模型进行了改进,并提出灰色预测理论对非等间隔数据处理的新方法。通过采用所建立腐蚀管道剩余寿命模型和改进GM模型对腐蚀管道剩余寿命的计算,证明了该方法的准确、简洁、可行与普适性。

Abstract

For the reliability problems of large data samples and low prediction accuracy and statistics to predict the remaining life of the corrosion pipelines,the author proposed the gray prediction theory to predict the residual life of corrosion pipelines; For the problem of unable to do with non-isochronous data、larger errors in the process of background values construction and had not used new information fully of the traditional GM（ 1,1） model,the author optimized the traditional GM（ 1,1） model and the model is improved. It’sby using the constructed residual life prediction model of the corrosion pipelines and the optimized GM（ 1,1） model to calculate the remaining life of the corrosion pipelines that is the accuracy,accuracy,simple,feasible and pervasive method.

关键词

管道预测腐蚀GM(11)发展系数剩余寿命

Keywords

PipeForecastingCorrosionGM（11）Development factorResidual life

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