Flexible reliability assessment model for self-recovery systems with performance degradation

LI Wenxue; TANG Jiayin; SONG Qingbiao

doi:10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2026.03.003

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Flexible reliability assessment model for self-recovery systems with performance degradation

·Optimization·Reliability· | 更新时间：2026-03-16

- Flexible reliability assessment model for self-recovery systems with performance degradation
- Journal of Mechanical Strength Vol. 48, Issue 3, Pages: 21-28(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  西南交通大学数学学院统计系，成都 611756
- 作者简介：
  
  TANG Jiayin, E-mail: jiayintang@163.com
- 基金信息：
  
  National Social Science Fund of China(23BTJ010)
- DOI：10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2026.03.003
  CLC： O212.3;TB114.3
- Received：03 April 2024，
  
  Revised：2024-05-14，
  
  Published：15 March 2026
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
李文雪, 唐家银, 宋庆彪.性能退化自恢复型系统的柔性可靠性评估模型[J].机械强度,2026,48(3):21-28.

LI Wenxue,TANG Jiayin,SONG Qingbiao.Flexible reliability assessment model for self-recovery systems with performance degradation[J].Journal of Mechanical Strength,2026,48(3):21-28.
李文雪, 唐家银, 宋庆彪.性能退化自恢复型系统的柔性可靠性评估模型[J].机械强度,2026,48(3):21-28. DOI： 10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2026.03.003.

LI Wenxue,TANG Jiayin,SONG Qingbiao.Flexible reliability assessment model for self-recovery systems with performance degradation[J].Journal of Mechanical Strength,2026,48(3):21-28. DOI： 10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2026.03.003.

摘要

目的

针对齿轮传动等复杂系统受外部随机冲击后存在性能退化自恢复能力，现有模型难以精准评估其可靠性的问题，从竞争失效角度出发，构建柔性可靠性评估模型，实现该类系统的精准可靠性分析。

方法

首先，采用非线性变速率Wiener过程表征性能退化，兼顾随机因素与个体差异性，为动态退化特性刻画提供基础。其次，协同Poisson过程描述随机冲击，明确致命与非致命冲击的影响机制。然后，运用自恢复函数描述退化损伤完全或部分恢复过程，构建柔性竞争失效可靠性模型。最后，基于拟牛顿迭代算法与三次样条插值，提出多阶段参数估计方法，保障模型参数求解精度。

结果

算例验证表明，系统运行约1 100 h后，忽略自恢复效应会低估可靠度水平；所建模型与仿真结果的可靠度差值不超过0.015 7，且适用于线性/恒定退化速率系统及经典无自恢复系统，为齿轮传动等自恢复型系统的可靠性评估提供参考。

Abstract

Objective

Aiming at the problem that complex systems such as gear transmission have the ability to recover from performance degradation damage after external random shocks

and existing models are difficult to accurately evaluate reliability

a flexible reliability assessment model was constructed from the perspective of competitive failure to realize precise reliability analysis of such systems.

Methods

Firstly

a nonlinear variable-rate Wiener process was adopted to characterize performance degradation

considering random factors and individual differences to provide a basis for describing dynamic degradation characteristics. Secondly

a Poisson process was coordinated to characterize random shocks

clarifying the influence mechanism of fatal and non-fatal shocks. Then

a self-recovery function was used to describe the complete or partial recovery process of degradation damage

and a flexible competitive failure reliability model was constructed. Finally

a multi-stage parameter estimation method was proposed based on the quasi-Newton iterative algorithm and cubic spline interpolation to ensure the accuracy of model parameter solution.

Results

Example verification shows that after the system operates for about 1 100 hours

ignoring the self-recovery effect will underestimate the reliability level. The reliability difference between the established model and the simulation results does not exceed 0.015 7

and the model is applicable to linear/constant degradation rate systems and classic systems without self-recovery

providing a reference for the reliability assessment of self-recovery systems such as gear transmission.

关键词

Keywords

references

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